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Kenneth Gillingham
Professor, Yale School of the Environment
E-mail: kenneth dot gillingham at yale dot edu

Research Interests

Environmental & Energy Economics, Industrial Organization, Public Economics, Empirical Methods,
Technological Change, Transportation Economics, Energy & Climate Policy Modeling


All Papers | Selected Economics Papers | Selected Science Papers | Selected Management Papers

Selected Working Papers

Microeconomics of the Solar Rebound Under Net Metering (with Matt Oliver and Juan Moreno-Cruz)
Revisions requested at the Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists
[Working Paper]

Valuing Technology Complementarities: Rooftop Solar and Energy Storage (with Bryan Bollinger, Naim Darghouth, and Andres Gonzalez-Lira)
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Learning-by-Doing in Solar Photovoltaic Installations (with Bryan Bollinger)
[Working Paper]

The Effect of Fuel Economy Standards on Vehicle Weight Dispersion and Accident Fatalities (with Antonio Bento and Kevin Roth)
[Working Paper] [Appendix]

The Economics of Fuel Economy Standards versus Feebates
[NEPI Working Paper]



Racial Disparities in the Health Effects from Air Pollution: Evidence from Ports (with Pei Huang)
Journal of Human Resources (2024), forthcoming
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper] [ZEW Working Paper]

Boundary Effects in the Diffusion of New Products on Cartesian Networks (with Gadi Fibich and Tomer Levin)
Operations Research (2024), forthcoming
[Working Paper]

Air Pollution and Solar Energy: Evidence from Wildfires (with Seung Min Kim)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2024), forthcoming
[Working Paper]

Carbon Pricing and the Emissions Implications of Electric Vehicles (with Marten Ovaere and Stephanie Weber)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2024), forthcoming
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

How Is Rooftop Solar Capitalized in Home Prices (with Asa Watten)
Regional Science & Urban Economics (2024), forthcoming
[Published Version]

Peer-to-Peer Solar and Social Rewards: Evidence from a Field Experiment (with Stefano Carattini, Xiangyu Meng, and Erez Yoeli)
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2024), 219: 340-370
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Earlier Working Paper]

Promotional Campaign Duration and Word-of-Mouth in Durable Good Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger, Stefan Lamp, and Tsvetan Tsvetanov)
Marketing Science (2024), forthcoming (Finalist in the 2022 Gary L. Lilien ISMS-MSI Practice Prize Competition)
[Published Version] [Working Paper]

Delivering Affordable Clean Energy to Consumers (with Praveen Kopelle, Jesse Burkhardt, Lauren Grewal, and Nailya Ordabayeva)
Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science (2024), forthcoming
[Published Version] [Working Paper]


Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Pricing on Residential Electricity Consumption (with Jesse Burkhardt and Praveen Kopalle)
Management Science (2023), 69(12): 7151-7882
[Published Version] [Working Paper] [Earlier NBER Working Paper]

Technology Advancement is Driving Electric Vehicle Adoption (with Connor Forsythe, Jeremy Michalek, and Kate Whitefoot)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023), 120(23): e2219396120
[Published Version]

US Benefit-Cost Analysis Requires Revision (with Peter Howard, Max Sarinsky, Michael Bauer, et al.)
Science (Letter) (2023), 380: 803
[Published Version]

Germany: Luring Drivers Onto Public Transport (with Mark Andor et al.)
Nature (2023), 618:907
[Published Version]

Comment on 'Economic Implications of the Climate Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act'
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2023), Spring: 167-178
[Published Version including paper being commented on]

Has Consumer Acceptance of Electric Vehicles Been Increasing? Evidence from Microdata on Every New Vehicle Sale in the United States (with Arthur van Benthem, Stephanie Weber, Daly Saafi, and Xin He)
American Economic Association: Papers & Proceedings (2023), 113: 329-335
[Published Version] [Working Paper]

Quantifying the Benefits of the Introduction of the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (with Rich Langford)
International Journal of Industrial Organization (2023), 87: 102904
[Published Version] [Working Paper]

Making Pro-social Social: The Effectiveness of Social Norm Appeals for Energy Conservation Using Social Media (with Kelly Guo and Bryan Bollinger)
Journal of the Association for Consumer Research (2023), 8(3): 290-300
[Published Version] [Working Paper]


Equilibrium Trade in Automobile Markets (with Fedor Iskhakov, Anders Munk-Nielsen, John Rust, and Bertel Schjerning)
Journal of Political Economy (2022), 130(10): 2534 2593
[Published Version] [Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Visibility and Peer Influence in Durable Good Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger, Justin Kirkpatrick, and Steve Sexton)
Marketing Science (2022), 41(3): 453-476
[Published Version] [Working Paper]

Designing Fuel-Economy Standards in Light of Electric Vehicles
In: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy vol. 3, Tatyana Deryugina, Matthew Kotchen, and James Stock (eds). National Bureau of Economic Research.
[Published Version] [Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

What is the Value of Conformity? Evidence from Home Landscaping and Water Conservation (with Jesse Burkhardt, Nathan Chan, and Bryan Bollinger)
American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2022), 104(1): 228-248
[Published Version]


Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (with Sebastien Houde and Arthur van Benthem)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2021), 13(3): 207-238
[Published Version] [Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger)
Management Science (2021), 67(11): 6629-7289
[Published Version] [Working Paper]

The Climate and Health Benefits from Intensive Building Energy Efficiency Improvements (with Pei Huang, Colby Buehler, Jordan Peccia, Drew Gentner)
Science Advances (2021), 7(34): eabg0947
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Eight Priorities for Calculating the Social Cost of Carbon (with Gernot Wagner et al.)
Nature (2021), 590: 548-550
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Pricing of Indirect Emissions Accelerates Low-Carbon Transition of U.S. Light Vehicle Sector (with Paul Wolfram, Stephanie Weber, Edgar Hertwich)
Nature Communications (2021), 12: 7121
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Linking Housing Policy, Housing Typology and Residential Energy Demand in the United States (with Peter Berrill and Edgar Hertwich)
Environmental Science & Technology (2021), 55(4): 2224-2233
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Induced Innovation in Energy Technologies and Systems: A Review of Evidence and Potential Implications for CO2 Mitigation (with Michael Grubb et al.)
Environmental Research Letters (2021), 16(4): 043007
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Drivers of Change in U.S. Residential Energy Consumption (with Peter Berrill and Edgar Hertwich)
Environmental Research Letters (2021), 16(3): 034045
[Published Version (Open Access)]


Attribute Substitution in Household Vehicle Portfolios (with Jim Archsmith, Chris Knittel, and Dave Rapson)
RAND Journal of Economics (2020), 51(4): 1162-1196
[Published Version] [E2e Working Paper]

Peer Effects in Residential Water Conservation: Evidence from Migration (with Bryan Bollinger and Jesse Burkhardt)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2020), 12(3): 107-133
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper] [Global Water Forum Post]

Field Experimental Evidence Shows that Self-Interest Attracts More Sunlight (with Bryan Bollinger and Marten Ovaere)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020), 117(34): 20503-20510
[Published Version] [Research Highlight in Nature]

Long-run Environmental and Economic Impacts of Electrifying Waterborne Shipping in the United States (with Pei Huang)
Environmental Science & Technology (2020), 54(16): 9824-9833
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Supplementary Information]

The Short-run and Long-run Effects of Covid-19 on Energy and the Environment (with Chris Knittel, Jing Li, Marten Ovaere, and Mar Reguant)
Joule (2020), 4(7): 1337-1341
[Published Version (Covid-19 Open Access Portal)] [Supplementary Information]

Running a Car Costs Much More Than People Think (with Mark Andor, Andreas Gerster, Marco Horvath)
Nature (2020), 580: 453-455
[Published Version]

Peer Influence on Household Energy Behaviors (with Kim Wolske and Wes Schultz)
Nature Energy (2020), 5: 202-212
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect and the Proposed Rollback of U.S. Fuel Economy Standards
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2020), 14(1): 136-142
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]


Hurdles and Steps: Estimating Demand for Solar Photovoltaics (with Tsvetan Tsvetanov)
Quantitative Economics (2019), 10(1): 275-310
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

A Tale of Two Tails: Commuting and the Fuel Price Response in Driving (with Anders Munk-Nielsen)
Journal of Urban Economics (2019), 109: 27-40
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper with Online Appendix]

Is Abundant Natural Gas a Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future or a Dead-end? (with Pei Huang)
Energy Journal (2019), 40(2): 75-100
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Online Appendix]


Flawed Analyses of U.S. Auto Fuel Economy Standards (with Antonio Bento et al.)
Science (2018), 362(6419): 1119-1121
[Published Version]

Credibility-Enhancing Displays Promote the Provision of a Non-Normative Public Good (with Gordon Kraft-Todd, Bryan Bollinger, Stefan Lamp, and Dave Rand)
Nature (2018), 563: 245-248
[Published Version]

Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Economic Growth (with Peter Christensen and William Nordhaus)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2018), 115(21): 5409-5414
[Published Version]

The Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (with Jim Stock)
Journal of Economic Perspectives (2018), 32(5): 1-20
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Errata]

Modeling Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison (with William Nordhaus et al.)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2018), 5(4): 791-826
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Online Appendix] [Earlier Cowles Foundation Working Paper]

Nudging Energy Efficiency Audits: Evidence from a Field Experiment (with Tsvetan Tsvetanov)
Journal of Environmental Economics & Management (2018), 90: 303-316
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

Advances in Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies and Programs (with Karen Palmer and Amelia Keyes)
Annual Review of Resource Economics (2018), 10(1): 511-532
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]


Lessons from First Campus Carbon Pricing Scheme (with Stefano Carattini and Dan Esty)
Nature (2017), 51: 27-29
[Published Version]

What Factors Affect the Prices of Low-Priced U.S. Solar PV Systems (with Greg Nemet et al.)
Renewable Energy (2017), 114: 1333-1339
[Published Version] [LBNL Working Paper]

Solar Subsidies and Characteristics of Low-Priced Solar Systems (with Greg Nemet et al.)
Applied Energy (2017), 187: 501-513
[Published Version]


Reforming the Federal Coal Leasing Program (with Jim Bushnell, Meredith Fowlie, Michael Greenstone, Alan Krupnick, Charlie Kolstad, Adele Morris, Dick Schmalensee, and Jim Stock)
Science (2016), 354(6316): 1096-1098
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy (with David Rapson and Gernot Wagner)
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2016), 10(1): 68-88
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Supplementary Materials] [RFF Discussion Paper]

Opportunities for Advances in Climate Economics (with Marshall Burke et al.)
Science (2016), 352(6283): 292-293
[Published Version]

Deconstructing Solar Photovoltaic Pricing: The Role of Market Structure, Technology, and Policy (with Hao Deng et al.)
Energy Journal (2016), 37(3): 231-250
[Published Version] [LBNL Working Paper]


The Microeconomic Theory of the Rebound Effect and its Welfare Implications (with Nathan W. Chan)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2015), 2(1): 133-159
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Heterogeneity in the Response to Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and Implications for the Rebound Effect (with Alan Jenn and Inês Azevedo)
Energy Economics (2015), 52(S1): S41-S52
[Published Version] [Working Paper with Online Appendix]

Spatial Patterns of Solar Photovoltaic System Adoption: The Influence of Neighbors and the Built Environment (with Marcello Graziano)
Journal of Economic Geography (2015), 15(4): 815-839
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]


Using and Improving the Social Cost of Carbon (with Billy Pizer et al.)
Science (2014), 346(6214): 1189-1190
[Published Version]

Rebound Effects
In: New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume (eds). Palgrave Macmillian Publishing. 2014.
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Bridging the Energy Efficiency Gap: Policy Insights from Economic Theory and Empirical Analysis (with Karen Palmer)
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2014), 8(1): 18-38
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Identifying the Elasticity of Driving: Evidence from a Gasoline Price Shock in California
Regional Science & Urban Economics (2014), 47(4): 13-24
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]


Long-Term Shifts in Lifecycle Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity (with Sonia Yeh, Gouri Mishra, Geoff Morrison, Jacob Teter, Raul Quiceno, and Xavier Riera-Palou)
Environmental Science & Technology (2013), 47(6): 2494-2501
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect is Over-played (with Matthew Kotchen, David Rapson, and Gernot Wagner)
Nature (2013), 493: 475-476
[Published Version]


Peer Effects in the Diffusion of Solar Photovoltaic Panels (with Bryan Bollinger)
Marketing Science (2012), 31(6): 900-912
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version] [Online Appendix]

Barriers to the Implementation of Low Carbon Technologies (with Jim Sweeney)
Climate Change Economics (2012), 3(4): 1-25
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Split Incentives in Residential Energy Consumption (with Matt Harding and David Rapson)
Energy Journal (2012), 33(2): 37-62
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version] [Contract Theory Appendix]


Market Failure and the Structure of Externalities (with Jim Sweeney)
In: Harnessing Renewable Energy, A. Jorge Padilla and Richard Schmalensee (eds). RFF Press. 2010.
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Economic Impact of the Integration of Alternative Vehicle Technologies into the New Zealand Vehicle Fleet (with Jonathan Leaver)
Journal of Cleaner Production (2010), 18(9): 908-916
[Published Version]


Energy Efficiency Economics and Policy (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
Annual Review of Resource Economics (2009), 1: 597-619

[Published Version] [NBER Working Paper Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version] [Reprint in Italian in Energia]

Economic Efficiency of Solar Hot Water Policy in New Zealand
Energy Policy (2009), 37(9): 3336-3347

[Published Version]

Assessment of Primary Impacts of a Hydrogen Economy in New Zealand using UNISYD (with Jonathan Leaver and Luke Leaver)
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2009), 34(7): 2855-2865
[Published Version]


Modeling Endogenous Technological Change for Climate Policy Analysis (with Richard Newell and William Pizer)
Energy Economics (2008), 30(6): 2734-2753
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Learning-by-Doing and the Optimal Solar Policy in California (with Arthur van Benthem and James Sweeney)
Energy Journal (2008), 29(3): 131-151
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper Version] [RFF Weekly Policy Commentary based on the paper]

Impact of Bioenergy Crops in a Carbon Constrained World: An Application of the MiniCAM Linked Energy-Agriculture and Land Use Model (with Stephen Smith and Ronald Sands)
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2008), 13(7): 675-701
[Published Version] [Published Version with Appended Figures]


Measuring Marginal Congestion Costs of Urban Transportation: Do Networks Matter? (with Elena Safirova and Sebastien Houde)
Transportation Research A (2007), 41(8): 734-749
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]


Energy Efficiency Policies: A Retrospective Examination (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2006) 31: 193-237
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version] [Resources article based on the paper]

Economies of Scale in Community Water Systems (with Jhih-Shyang Shih, Winston Harrington, and William Pizer)
Journal of American Water Works Association (2006) 98(9): 100-108
[RFF Discussion Paper Version]


Choosing Congestion Pricing Policy: Cordon Tolls vs. Link-Based Tolls (with Elena Safirova, Peter Nelson, Winston Harrington, and Abram Lipman)
Transportation Research Record (2005) 1932: 169-177
[Published Version]


Welfare and Distributional Effects of HOT Lanes and Other Road Pricing Policies in Metropolitan Washington, DC (with Elena Safirova, Ian Parry, Winston Harrington, Peter Nelson, and David Mason)
In: Road Pricing: Theory and Practice, Georgina Santos (ed). Elsevier Publishing. 2004
[RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Other Publications

Potential and Critical Issues of Electric Vehicles Development (with Stephanie Weber), In: The Global Quest for Sustainability: The Role of Green Infrastructure in a Post-Pandemic World
ISPI-McKinsey Report (2021), July 15

[Published Version]

Emissions Projections for a Trio of Federal Climate Policies (with Wesley Look et al.)
RFF Issue Brief (2021), April 27

[Published Version]

Shipping Shapes Health (with Pei Huang)
Public Health Post (2021), February 3

[Published Version]

Carbon Calculus: The Cost of Greenhouse Gas Reductions
International Monetary Fund Finance & Development (2019), 56(4)

[Published Version]

Comments on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
Docket numbers: EPA HQ OAR 2018 0283 and NHTSA 2018 0067 (2018), October 27

[On the Forecasting of New Vehicle Sales (with Jim Stock and Wade Davis)] [On Fleet Turnover and Used Car Prices] [On the Rebound Effect]

William Nordhaus and the Costs of Climate Change
YaleGlobal Online and VoxEU/CEPR Policy Portal (2018), October

[YaleGlobal Online] [VoxEU Version]

Federal Mineral Leasing Reform and Climate Policy (with Jim Stock)
The Hamilton Project Policy Proposal (2016), 2016-07

[Brookings Link]

Do Peer Effects Matter? Assessing the Impact of Causal Social Influence on Solar PV Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger)
Photovoltaics International (2012), 17: 146-150

[Published Version]

Carbon Accounting is a Tricky Business, Letter to the Editor (with Andrew Friedland)
Science (2010), 327: 411-412

[Published Version]

Analysis of Measures to Meet the Requirements of California's Assembly Bill 32 (with James Sweeney, John Weyant, and the AB-32 team)
Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency Working Paper (2008)

Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles: A Prudent Intermediate Step or a Step in the Wrong Direction?
Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project Working Paper (2006)

The Effectiveness and Cost of Energy Efficiency Programs (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
In: The RFF Reader in Environmental and Resource Policy, Wallace Oates (ed). Resources for the Future Press. 193-201. 2006

Are HOT Lanes a Hot Deal? Analyzing the Potential of HOV to HOT Lanes Conversion in Northern Virginia (with Elena Safirova, Winston Harrington, and Peter Nelson)
Resources for the Future Issue Brief 03-03 (2003)

Revving up the Tax Engine: Gas Taxes and the DC Metro Area's Transportation Dilemma (with Peter Nelson and Elena Safirova)
Resources for the Future Issue Brief 03-05 (2003)