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Kenneth Gillingham
Professor, Yale School of the Environment
E-mail: kenneth dot gillingham at yale dot edu

Research Interests

Environmental & Energy Economics, Industrial Organization, Public Economics, Empirical Methods,
Technological Change, Transportation Economics, Energy & Climate Policy Modeling


All Papers | Selected Economics Papers | Selected Science Papers | Selected Management Papers

Selected Working Papers

Equilibrium Trade in Automobile Markets (with Fedor Iskhakov, Anders Munk-Nielsen, John Rust, and Bertel Schjerning)
Conditionally accepted at Journal of Political Economy
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Quantifying the Benefits of the Introduction of the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (with Rich Langford)
Minor revisions requested at International Journal of Industrial Organization
[Working Paper]

Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Information and Pricing on Residential Electricity Consumption (with Jesse Burkhardt and Praveen Kopalle)
Resubmitted to Management Science
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Racial Disparities in the Health Effects from Air Pollution: Evidence from Ports (with Pei Huang)
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper] [ZEW Working Paper]

Carbon Pricing and the Emissions Implications of Electric Vehicles (with Marten Ovaere and Stephanie Weber)
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Learning-by-Doing in Solar Photovoltaic Installations (with Bryan Bollinger)
[Working Paper]

The Effect of Fuel Economy Standards on Vehicle Weight Dispersion and Accident Fatalities (with Antonio Bento and Kevin Roth)
[Working Paper] [Appendix]

The Economics of Fuel Economy Standards versus Feebates
[NEPI Working Paper]


Designing Fuel-Economy Standards in Light of Electric Vehicles
In: Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy vol. 3, Tatyana Deryugina, Matthew Kotchen, and James Stock (eds). National Bureau of Economic Research. forthcoming.
[Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Visibility and Peer Influence in Durable Good Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger, Justin Kirkpatrick, and Steve Sexton)
Marketing Science (2022), forthcoming
[Working Paper]

What is the Value of Conformity? Evidence from Home Landscaping and Water Conservation (with Jesse Burkhardt, Nathan Chan, and Bryan Bollinger)
American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2022), 104(1): 228-248
[Published Version]


Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (with Sebastien Houde and Arthur van Benthem)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2021), 13(3): 207-238
[Published Version] [Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper]

Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger)
Management Science (2021), 67(11): 6629-7289
[Published Version] [Working Paper]

The Climate and Health Benefits from Intensive Building Energy Efficiency Improvements (with Pei Huang, Colby Buehler, Jordan Peccia, Drew Gentner)
Science Advances (2021), 7(34): eabg0947
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Eight Priorities for Calculating the Social Cost of Carbon (with Gernot Wagner et al.)
Nature (2021), 590: 548-550
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Pricing of Indirect Emissions Accelerates Low-Carbon Transition of U.S. Light Vehicle Sector (with Paul Wolfram, Stephanie Weber, Edgar Hertwich)
Nature Communications (2021), 12: 7121
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Linking Housing Policy, Housing Typology and Residential Energy Demand in the United States (with Peter Berrill and Edgar Hertwich)
Environmental Science & Technology (2021), 55(4): 2224-2233
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Induced Innovation in Energy Technologies and Systems: A Review of Evidence and Potential Implications for CO2 Mitigation (with Michael Grubb et al.)
Environmental Research Letters (2021), 16(4): 043007
[Published Version (Open Access)]

Drivers of Change in U.S. Residential Energy Consumption (with Peter Berrill and Edgar Hertwich)
Environmental Research Letters (2021), 16(3): 034045
[Published Version (Open Access)]


Attribute Substitution in Household Vehicle Portfolios (with Jim Archsmith, Chris Knittel, and Dave Rapson)
RAND Journal of Economics (2020), 51(4): 1162-1196
[Published Version] [E2e Working Paper]

Peer Effects in Residential Water Conservation: Evidence from Migration (with Bryan Bollinger and Jesse Burkhardt)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (2020), 12(3): 107-133
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [NBER Working Paper] [Global Water Forum Post]

Field Experimental Evidence Shows that Self-Interest Attracts More Sunlight (with Bryan Bollinger and Marten Ovaere)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020), 117(34): 20503-20510
[Published Version] [Research Highlight in Nature]

Long-run Environmental and Economic Impacts of Electrifying Waterborne Shipping in the United States (with Pei Huang)
Environmental Science & Technology (2020), 54(16): 9824-9833
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Supplementary Information]

The Short-run and Long-run Effects of Covid-19 on Energy and the Environment (with Chris Knittel, Jing Li, Marten Ovaere, and Mar Reguant)
Joule (2020), 4(7): 1337-1341
[Published Version (Covid-19 Open Access Portal)] [Supplementary Information]

Running a Car Costs Much More Than People Think (with Mark Andor, Andreas Gerster, Marco Horvath)
Nature (2020), 580: 453-455
[Published Version]

Peer Influence on Household Energy Behaviors (with Kim Wolske and Wes Schultz)
Nature Energy (2020), 5: 202-212
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect and the Proposed Rollback of U.S. Fuel Economy Standards
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2020), 14(1): 136-142
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]


Hurdles and Steps: Estimating Demand for Solar Photovoltaics (with Tsvetan Tsvetanov)
Quantitative Economics (2019), 10(1): 275-310
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

A Tale of Two Tails: Commuting and the Fuel Price Response in Driving (with Anders Munk-Nielsen)
Journal of Urban Economics (2019), 109: 27-40
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper with Online Appendix]

Is Abundant Natural Gas a Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future or a Dead-end? (with Pei Huang)
Energy Journal (2019), 40(2): 75-100
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Online Appendix]


Flawed Analyses of U.S. Auto Fuel Economy Standards (with Antonio Bento et al.)
Science (2018), 362(6419): 1119-1121
[Published Version]

Credibility-Enhancing Displays Promote the Provision of a Non-Normative Public Good (with Gordon Kraft-Todd, Bryan Bollinger, Stefan Lamp, and Dave Rand)
Nature (2018), 563: 245-248
[Published Version]

Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Economic Growth (with Peter Christensen and William Nordhaus)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2018), 115(21): 5409-5414
[Published Version]

The Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (with Jim Stock)
Journal of Economic Perspectives (2018), 32(5): 1-20
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Errata]

Modeling Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison (with William Nordhaus et al.)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2018), 5(4): 791-826
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Online Appendix] [Earlier Cowles Foundation Working Paper]

Nudging Energy Efficiency Audits: Evidence from a Field Experiment (with Tsvetan Tsvetanov)
Journal of Environmental Economics & Management (2018), 90: 303-316
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]

Advances in Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies and Programs (with Karen Palmer and Amelia Keyes)
Annual Review of Resource Economics (2018), 10(1): 511-532
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper]


Lessons from First Campus Carbon Pricing Scheme (with Stefano Carattini and Dan Esty)
Nature (2017), 51: 27-29
[Published Version]

What Factors Affect the Prices of Low-Priced U.S. Solar PV Systems (with Greg Nemet et al.)
Renewable Energy (2017), 114: 1333-1339
[Published Version] [LBNL Working Paper]

Solar Subsidies and Characteristics of Low-Priced Solar Systems (with Greg Nemet et al.)
Applied Energy (2017), 187: 501-513
[Published Version]


Reforming the Federal Coal Leasing Program (with Jim Bushnell, Meredith Fowlie, Michael Greenstone, Alan Krupnick, Charlie Kolstad, Adele Morris, Dick Schmalensee, and Jim Stock)
Science (2016), 354(6316): 1096-1098
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy (with David Rapson and Gernot Wagner)
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2016), 10(1): 68-88
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper] [Supplementary Materials] [RFF Discussion Paper]

Opportunities for Advances in Climate Economics (with Marshall Burke et al.)
Science (2016), 352(6283): 292-293
[Published Version]

Deconstructing Solar Photovoltaic Pricing: The Role of Market Structure, Technology, and Policy (with Hao Deng et al.)
Energy Journal (2016), 37(3): 231-250
[Published Version] [LBNL Working Paper]


The Microeconomic Theory of the Rebound Effect and its Welfare Implications (with Nathan W. Chan)
Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists (2015), 2(1): 133-159
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Heterogeneity in the Response to Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and Implications for the Rebound Effect (with Alan Jenn and Inês Azevedo)
Energy Economics (2015), 52(S1): S41-S52
[Published Version] [Working Paper with Online Appendix]

Spatial Patterns of Solar Photovoltaic System Adoption: The Influence of Neighbors and the Built Environment (with Marcello Graziano)
Journal of Economic Geography (2015), 15(4): 815-839
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]


Using and Improving the Social Cost of Carbon (with Billy Pizer et al.)
Science (2014), 346(6214): 1189-1190
[Published Version]

Rebound Effects
In: New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume (eds). Palgrave Macmillian Publishing. 2014.
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Bridging the Energy Efficiency Gap: Policy Insights from Economic Theory and Empirical Analysis (with Karen Palmer)
Review of Environmental Economics & Policy (2014), 8(1): 18-38
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Identifying the Elasticity of Driving: Evidence from a Gasoline Price Shock in California
Regional Science & Urban Economics (2014), 47(4): 13-24
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]


Long-Term Shifts in Lifecycle Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity (with Sonia Yeh, Gouri Mishra, Geoff Morrison, Jacob Teter, Raul Quiceno, and Xavier Riera-Palou)
Environmental Science & Technology (2013), 47(6): 2494-2501
[Published Version]

The Rebound Effect is Over-played (with Matthew Kotchen, David Rapson, and Gernot Wagner)
Nature (2013), 493: 475-476
[Published Version]


Peer Effects in the Diffusion of Solar Photovoltaic Panels (with Bryan Bollinger)
Marketing Science (2012), 31(6): 900-912
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version] [Online Appendix]

Barriers to the Implementation of Low Carbon Technologies (with Jim Sweeney)
Climate Change Economics (2012), 3(4): 1-25
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Split Incentives in Residential Energy Consumption (with Matt Harding and David Rapson)
Energy Journal (2012), 33(2): 37-62
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version] [Contract Theory Appendix]


Market Failure and the Structure of Externalities (with Jim Sweeney)
In: Harnessing Renewable Energy, A. Jorge Padilla and Richard Schmalensee (eds). RFF Press. 2010.
[Published Version] [Working Paper Version]

Economic Impact of the Integration of Alternative Vehicle Technologies into the New Zealand Vehicle Fleet (with Jonathan Leaver)
Journal of Cleaner Production (2010), 18(9): 908-916
[Published Version]


Energy Efficiency Economics and Policy (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
Annual Review of Resource Economics (2009), 1: 597-619

[Published Version] [NBER Working Paper Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version] [Reprint in Italian in Energia]

Economic Efficiency of Solar Hot Water Policy in New Zealand
Energy Policy (2009), 37(9): 3336-3347

[Published Version]

Assessment of Primary Impacts of a Hydrogen Economy in New Zealand using UNISYD (with Jonathan Leaver and Luke Leaver)
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2009), 34(7): 2855-2865
[Published Version]


Modeling Endogenous Technological Change for Climate Policy Analysis (with Richard Newell and William Pizer)
Energy Economics (2008), 30(6): 2734-2753
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Learning-by-Doing and the Optimal Solar Policy in California (with Arthur van Benthem and James Sweeney)
Energy Journal (2008), 29(3): 131-151
[Published Version] [Final Working Paper Version] [RFF Weekly Policy Commentary based on the paper]

Impact of Bioenergy Crops in a Carbon Constrained World: An Application of the MiniCAM Linked Energy-Agriculture and Land Use Model (with Stephen Smith and Ronald Sands)
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (2008), 13(7): 675-701
[Published Version] [Published Version with Appended Figures]


Measuring Marginal Congestion Costs of Urban Transportation: Do Networks Matter? (with Elena Safirova and Sebastien Houde)
Transportation Research A (2007), 41(8): 734-749
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version]


Energy Efficiency Policies: A Retrospective Examination (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2006) 31: 193-237
[Published Version] [RFF Discussion Paper Version] [Resources article based on the paper]

Economies of Scale in Community Water Systems (with Jhih-Shyang Shih, Winston Harrington, and William Pizer)
Journal of American Water Works Association (2006) 98(9): 100-108
[RFF Discussion Paper Version]


Choosing Congestion Pricing Policy: Cordon Tolls vs. Link-Based Tolls (with Elena Safirova, Peter Nelson, Winston Harrington, and Abram Lipman)
Transportation Research Record (2005) 1932: 169-177
[Published Version]


Welfare and Distributional Effects of HOT Lanes and Other Road Pricing Policies in Metropolitan Washington, DC (with Elena Safirova, Ian Parry, Winston Harrington, Peter Nelson, and David Mason)
In: Road Pricing: Theory and Practice, Georgina Santos (ed). Elsevier Publishing. 2004
[RFF Discussion Paper Version]

Other Publications

Potential and Critical Issues of Electric Vehicles Development (with Stephanie Weber), In: The Global Quest for Sustainability: The Role of Green Infrastructure in a Post-Pandemic World
ISPI-McKinsey Report (2021), July 15

[Published Version]

Emissions Projections for a Trio of Federal Climate Policies (with Wesley Look et al.)
RFF Issue Brief (2021), April 27

[Published Version]

Shipping Shapes Health (with Pei Huang)
Public Health Post (2021), February 3

[Published Version]

Carbon Calculus: The Cost of Greenhouse Gas Reductions
International Monetary Fund Finance & Development (2019), 56(4)

[Published Version]

Comments on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
Docket numbers: EPA–HQ–OAR–2018–0283 and NHTSA–2018–0067 (2018), October 27

[On the Forecasting of New Vehicle Sales (with Jim Stock and Wade Davis)] [On Fleet Turnover and Used Car Prices] [On the Rebound Effect]

William Nordhaus and the Costs of Climate Change
YaleGlobal Online and VoxEU/CEPR Policy Portal (2018), October

[YaleGlobal Online] [VoxEU Version]

Federal Mineral Leasing Reform and Climate Policy (with Jim Stock)
The Hamilton Project Policy Proposal (2016), 2016-07

[Brookings Link]

Do Peer Effects Matter? Assessing the Impact of Causal Social Influence on Solar PV Adoption (with Bryan Bollinger)
Photovoltaics International (2012), 17: 146-150

[Published Version]

Carbon Accounting is a Tricky Business, Letter to the Editor (with Andrew Friedland)
Science (2010), 327: 411-412

[Published Version]

Analysis of Measures to Meet the Requirements of California's Assembly Bill 32 (with James Sweeney, John Weyant, and the AB-32 team)
Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency Working Paper (2008)

Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles: A Prudent Intermediate Step or a Step in the Wrong Direction?
Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project Working Paper (2006)

The Effectiveness and Cost of Energy Efficiency Programs (with Richard Newell and Karen Palmer)
In: The RFF Reader in Environmental and Resource Policy, Wallace Oates (ed). Resources for the Future Press. 193-201. 2006

Are HOT Lanes a Hot Deal? Analyzing the Potential of HOV to HOT Lanes Conversion in Northern Virginia (with Elena Safirova, Winston Harrington, and Peter Nelson)
Resources for the Future Issue Brief 03-03 (2003)

Revving up the Tax Engine: Gas Taxes and the DC Metro Area's Transportation Dilemma (with Peter Nelson and Elena Safirova)
Resources for the Future Issue Brief 03-05 (2003)